A Cautious Climb in the Copper Arc
The copper market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is approaching a gradual but steady turning point. The region, which has long been characterised by recurrent consumption drops and moderate output improvements, is now entering a decade of cautious optimism. According to recent market predictions, the MENA copper market is expected to rise modestly, reaching 1.5 million tonnes of volume and $13.7 billion in market value by 2035. The predicted CAGR is +0.6% for volume and +1.9% for value, reflecting rising downstream demand, energy transitions, and infrastructure-driven copper consumption.
However, these modest numbers mask a larger story of changing domestic capabilities, altering trade balances, and developing investment strategies.
A Market Correcting Itself: Consumption and Value in 2024
After two years of growth, refined copper consumption in MENA copper market decreased by -5.3% in 2024, reaching 1.4 million tonnes. This dip represents a transitory correction following the post-pandemic industrial reconstruction. The market value reflected this pattern, falling by -3.8% to $11.1 billion from $11.6 billion in 2023.
Between 2018 and 2024, consumption struggled to recover from its 2017 peak of 1.8 million tonnes. Despite recent declines, long-term structural demand for electrification, renewable energy, and transportation remains the primary driver of future growth.
Table 1: MENA Refined Copper Market – Historical Trend (2017–2024)
| Year | Consumption (M tons) |
Market Value ($B) |
| 2017 | 1.8 | 10.8 |
| 2018 | 1.6 | 10.1 |
| 2019 | 1.5 | 10.3 |
| 2020 | 1.3 | 9.2 |
| 2021 | 1.4 | 10.4 |
| 2022 | 1.5 | 10.9 |
| 2023 | 1.5 | 11.6 |
| 2024 | 1.4 | 11.1 |
Country-Level Snapshot: A Market of Uneven Momentum
Turkey dominates MENA copper consumption, accounting for 35% of overall volume (491K tonnes) and $4.2 billion in value. Its per capita usage of 5.7 kg ranks among the highest in the region, thanks to a diverse industrial base and robust cable/wiring industries.
Iran and Egypt follow, using 169K and 139K tonnes, respectively. Egypt experienced the most encouraging consumption growth, with a CAGR of +5.1%, reflecting significant construction growth and an expanding energy grid.
Meanwhile, Morocco’s per capita consumption grew at a CAGR of +10.0% between 2013 and 2024, indicating increased industrial sophistication and local processing capacity.
Table 2: Refined Copper Consumption by Country (2024)
| Country | Volume (K Tons) | Market Value ($B) | PerCapita (Kg) | CAGR (2013–24) |
| Turkey | 491 | 4.2 | 5.7 | +1.5% |
| Iran | 169 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -1.2% |
| Egypt | 139 | 1.3 | 1.3 | +5.1% |
| Israel | — | — | 4.7 | — |
| Tunisia | — | — | 3.0 | — |
| Morocco | — | — | 2.5* | +10.0% |
*Estimated value
Refined Copper Production: Anchored but Not Accelerating
MENA’s refined copper production in 2024 was 1 million tonnes, down 2.4% year on year. Despite minor annual changes, production has remained stable since peaking in 2015. In value terms, the region’s output was anticipated to be $7.9 billion, the same as in 2022, indicating price normalisation in global markets following a tumultuous time.
Iran is the regional output leader, with 263K tonnes, followed by Turkey (131K tonnes) and Algeria (119K tonnes). Iran’s continuous CAGR of +1.5% places it at the heart of the region’s long-term goal to reduce import dependency and strengthen exports.
Chart 1: MENA Refined Copper Production by Country (2024 % Share)
Iran ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 26%
Turkey ▓▓▓▓▓▓ 13%
Algeria ▓▓▓▓▓ 12%
Others ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 49%
Imports: Demand-Side Stability Amid Local Supply Gaps
In 2024, refined copper imports fell to 553K tonnes, a -5.3% reduction after three years of growth. Nonetheless, import value remained solid at $5 billion, although slightly lower than 2023’s peak.
Turkey accounted for 66% of total imports (368K tonnes), while Egypt received 26%. Notably, Egypt’s import growth has remained consistent, spurred by infrastructure modernisation and a recovering construction sector.
Table 3: Refined Copper Imports by Country (2024)
| Country | Volume (K Tons) | Value ($B) | Avg. Price/Ton ($) | CAGR (2013–24) |
| Turkey | 368 | 3.4 | 9,127 | +1.9% |
| Egypt | 141 | 1.3 | 9,219 | +4.5% |
| UAE | 16 | 119M | 7,419 | -12.2% |
The average import price in MENA copper market increased to $9,002 per tonne, up 2.9% from 2023, reflecting global pricing revisions. Turkey remains the price leader thanks to its premium sourcing strategy, while the UAE falls behind.
Exports: Iran Takes Center Stage
Exports rose in 2024, reaching 141K tonnes following a two-year slide. Total export value reached $1.2 billion, albeit less than the peak of $1.9 billion in 2021.
Iran remains MENA’s largest copper exporter, with 95K tonnes transported (67% of total), worth $842 million. Morocco emerged as the dark horse, with exports growing at a CAGR of +37.2%, highlighting the country’s expanding refining capabilities.
Table 4: Refined Copper Exports (2024)
| Country | Export Volume (K Tns) | Export Value ($M) | CAGR (2013–24) |
| Iran | 95 | 842 | +10.4% |
| UAE | 28 | 225 | +15.8% |
| Turkey | 8 | 67 | +5.5% |
| Morocco | 4.7 | 42 | +37.2% |
| Egypt | 2.4 | 21 | +26.4% |
Outlook to 2035: Gradual Expansion, Structural Shifts
While the expected volume CAGR is modest at +0.6% and the value CAGR is +1.9%, the 1.5 million tonnes and $13.7 billion by 2035 reflect a significant directional shift. This predicted growth is based on three structural trends:
- Energy Transition: Vehicle electrification and renewable grid expansion will drive investment in copper-intensive infrastructure.
- Domestic Production Scaling: To advance up the value chain, countries such as Iran and Morocco are increasing their indigenous smelting and refining capacity.
- Strategic Trade Diversification: Increased intra-regional trade and free trade agreements enable countries to hedge against global pricing volatility.
Final Thoughts: A Market of Opportunity Within Restraint
The MENA copper market is maturing, recalibrating, and gradually accumulating resilience, rather than expanding rapidly. With local production progressively stabilising and consumption patterns mirroring industrial development, copper in MENA is becoming more than simply a basic commodity; it is becoming a strategic asset. The challenge during the next decade will be to convert this untapped potential into competitive capacity, especially as global copper demand rises in tandem with the green energy revolution.
The copper sector in the Middle East and North Africa may be reluctant to grow, but it is becoming increasingly strategic.
Source:
Internal Market Forecast Data (2024-2035).
National Copper Development Committees.
MENA Import-Export Reports, Trade Ministry Bulletins (2024).
World Bank Mineral Resources Outlook (2024 Update).Global Copper Producers Association (GCPA): Regional Insights Series, 2024.
