Global critical mineral supply chains are facing increasing pressure as supply remains concentrated among a limited number of producers, export restrictions continue to expand and investment in new mining and processing projects slows, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency says these trends are creating new challenges for industries that depend on a reliable supply of minerals essential for clean energy technologies, advanced manufacturing and defence applications.
The findings are outlined in the IEA’s latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook, which notes that demand for minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements continues to grow. However, investment has not kept pace with long-term requirements, increasing concerns about future supply security and market resilience.
Investment Slowdown Raises Concerns for Future Mining Capacity
The report indicates that investment in critical minerals declined over the past year following several years of strong growth. Lower commodity prices, project delays and market uncertainty have affected investment decisions, raising questions about the industry’s ability to develop sufficient mining and refining capacity to meet future demand.
The IEA cautions that prolonged underinvestment could tighten supplies in the coming years, particularly as electrification, renewable energy deployment and advanced manufacturing continue to increase demand for critical raw materials. Expanding production capacity will require sustained investment across exploration, mining, mineral processing and refining.
Supply Concentration and Export Controls Increase Market Risks
The report also highlights that critical mineral supply chains remain heavily concentrated, particularly in mineral processing and refining. According to the IEA, increasing export restrictions on critical minerals have transformed supply concentration from a long-term structural issue into an immediate supply chain risk for manufacturers worldwide.
While governments and industry have taken steps to diversify supply sources through new mining projects, refining investments and international partnerships, the agency notes that further action will be required to reduce dependence on a limited number of suppliers and improve resilience across global supply networks.
Industry and Governments Continue Diversification Efforts
Despite the growing risks, the IEA identifies encouraging progress in several regions. Public funding for critical mineral projects has increased, and additional investments are supporting new mining operations, processing facilities and refining capacity outside traditional supply hubs. These initiatives are intended to strengthen critical mineral supply chains and improve long-term supply security for industries dependent on strategic minerals.
The agency concludes that continued collaboration between governments, mining companies, refiners and manufacturers will be essential to support future mineral demand. Diversifying production, expanding processing capacity and maintaining investment in new projects are expected to play a central role in building more resilient supply chains for the global energy transition and advanced manufacturing sectors.